What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
Preparations for a counteroffensive against Russia are underway in Ukraine, and experts believe that its launch is imminent (U.S. News and World Report, Business Insider). The success or failure of this spring offensive will shape the course of the war (New York Times).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from Brookings’ Ukraine Index. The graph “Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia” is updated monthly, and the question will resolve on the percentage reported for December 2023. Before the war began in February 2022, Russia held 7% of Ukraine (including Crimea and parts of the Donbas). In April 2023 (i.e., prior to the spring offensive), Russia held 17% of Ukraine.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from Brookings’ Ukraine Index. The graph “Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia” is updated monthly, and the question will resolve on the percentage reported for December 2023. Before the war began in February 2022, Russia held 7% of Ukraine (including Crimea and parts of the Donbas). In April 2023 (i.e., prior to the spring offensive), Russia held 17% of Ukraine.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 1% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 12% | 2% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to 12% but less than 17% | 6% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to 17% but less than 22% | 91% | Happened |
| More than or equal to 22% | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
Less than 7%
More than or equal to 22%