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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Yes/No Opened 12 January 2024 Closed 30 December 2024 Resolved 17 January 2025 1,186 forecasts 269 forecasters
Microsoft Research Lab Asia (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (Financial Times). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (Reuters). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda” (New York Times).
Resolution Criteria:  This question will be resolved as "Yes" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 3% Did not happen
No 97% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2024 Jul 2024 Dec 2024 97% 3%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.