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What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Multiple choice Opened 18 June 2020 Closed 1 October 2020 Resolved 1 October 2020 169 forecasts 130 forecasters

Context. Facial recognition technology is becoming increasingly controversial due to fears about widespread surveillance. The sentiment of media coverage on the topic is a proxy for public attitudes. 

Background and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is about facial recognition if it mentions the term "facial recognition." Nexis uses a machine-learning trained sentiment-analysis model to evaluate the sentiment of an article on a scale of -1 to 1. For this question, an article has negative sentiment if its sentiment is less than 0. This question resolves when CSET receives Nexis data through September 30, 2020.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 30% 5% Did not happen
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive 11% Did not happen
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50% 28% Happened
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60% 33% Did not happen
More than 60% 24% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.