Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
Resolution Criteria:
An “irregular transition” refers to any process that does not follow the regular legal democratic process for replacing heads of state. Examples of irregular transitions include coups, assassinations, and other forms of undemocratic removal. In contrast, regular democratic transition processes may be triggered by events like resignations, elections, or deaths by natural causes.
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. In the event that it is unclear whether or not Dina Boluarte is still president (e.g., there are multiple claims on the presidency, Dina Boluarte loses control of parts of the country, or she is exiled), this question will be resolved based on confirmed reports of who the United States government recognizes as President of Peru.Additional Reading:
- Peru’s embattled president could have eased the crisis. What happened? (CNN)
- Why Dina Boluarte Could Make it to 2026 (Americas Quarterly)
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.