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Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Yes/No Opened 22 September 2022 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 21 November 2023 883 forecasts 110 forecasters

This question will resolve using publications that Google Quantum AI lists on its official Research Publications page. To count publications in 2023, we will check the box for 2023 (not currently available) and count the total number of publications on 30 January 2024.  

Please note that there are many types of publications (e.g., preprints, journal articles, etc.), and while not all publications are peer-reviewed, we will count all 2023 publications available on the Google Quantum AI research publications page. 

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 76% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Sep 2022 May 2023 Nov 2023 76% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.