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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Yes/No Opened 27 February 2024 Closed 1 January 2025 Resolved 3 February 2025 608 forecasts 104 forecasters

Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (Smithsonian Magazine). To be considered “potentially habitable”, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth’s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (Planetary Habitability Laboratory).


Resolution Criteria:  As of 1 February 2024, the Habitable Worlds Catalog identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 1% Did not happen
No 99% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Feb 2024 Jun 2024 Jan 2025 99% 1%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.