Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
Several major oil and gas companies have announced that they are pausing shipments through the Red Sea, including BP in December 2023 and Shell in January 2024 (Forbes, Reuters). These decisions came after Houthi militants from Yemen launched attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea (BBC). BP has stated that the decision was made in order to protect their employees and that the “precautionary pause [will be] under ongoing review, subject to circumstances as they evolve in the region,” while Shell declined to comment (NBC News).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024. Shipments do not need to return to the level they were at before the pause in order to count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024. Shipments do not need to return to the level they were at before the pause in order to count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
| No | 100% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
No
Yes