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Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?

Yes/No Opened 1 February 2024 Closed 1 April 2024 Resolved 2 April 2024 267 forecasts 117 forecasters
Several major oil and gas companies have announced that they are pausing shipments through the Red Sea, including BP in December 2023 and Shell in January 2024 (Forbes, Reuters). These decisions came after Houthi militants from Yemen launched attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea (BBC). BP has stated that the decision was made in order to protect their employees and that the “precautionary pause [will be] under ongoing review, subject to circumstances as they evolve in the region,” while Shell declined to comment (NBC News).
Resolution Criteria:  This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024. Shipments do not need to return to the level they were at before the pause in order to count towards resolution. 
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen
No 100% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Feb 2024 Mar 2024 Apr 2024 100% 0%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.