From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?

Yes/No Opened 11 August 2022 Closed 1 August 2023 Resolved 25 August 2023 398 forecasts 60 forecasters

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank for a given time period:

Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
Select the following event types:

Battles
Violence against civilians
Explosions/Remote violence
Riots
Protests

Select “Israel (7/7)” and “Palestine (2/2)” from the Region filter.
Click “Apply Filters”
Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

For reference, there ACLED recorded 139 fatalities from 1 Aug 2021 to 31 July 2022.

Additional Reading:

Israel and Militants in Gaza Agree to Cease-Fire (New York Times)
Israel-Gaza: Death toll rises as Israel kills second top militant (BBC)
Israeli forces make overnight arrests in West Bank as Gaza death toll climbs to 32 (Fox News)

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.