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What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Multiple choice Opened 17 June 2020 Closed 18 April 2021 Resolved 3 January 2022 234 forecasts 143 forecasters

Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 1.5% 5% Did not happen
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive 11% Did not happen
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% 21% Happened
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% 31% Did not happen
More than 6% 32% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 32% 31% 21% 11% 5%
More than 6% More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Less than 1.5%
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.