RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Yes/No Opened 16 September 2020 Closed 15 October 2020 Resolved 20 October 2020 172 forecasts 85 forecasters

Context. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China’s leading chip manufacturer. In early September, a Department of Defense representative stated the Trump Administration was considering whether to add SMIC to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, which would force U.S. companies to obtain a license before they export to SMIC. Companies most impacted by the Entity Listing would be U.S. chip manufacturing equipment producers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA. The Entity List has become a commonly used tool in the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on whether the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List.

***

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 18% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.