How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 2 June 2022 Closed 1 July 2022 Resolved 21 July 2022 174 forecasts 76 forecasters

Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology has sparked a revolution in self driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired), but concerns about safety (National Law Review) and distrust of AI (International Journal of Human Computer Interaction) may hamper progress. Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with June accident dates. To access the list of reports, scroll down and click the + by the year “2022.” The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and resolved on 21 July 2022. Additional Reading:

What's the status of self-driving cars? There has been progress, but safety questions remain. (CBS News)
4 new advances on the road to autonomous driving (Silicon Republic)
Human Error Causes 99% of Autonomous Vehicle Accidents (IOT Today)

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 5	0%	Did not happen
Between 5 and 9, inclusive	8%	Did not happen
Between 10 and 14, inclusive	32%	Happened
Between 15 and 19, inclusive	41%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 20	19%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 20 Between 15 and 19, inclusive Between 10 and 14, inclusive Between 5 and 9, inclusive Less than 5

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.