In 2014, NATO Heads of State and Government agreed to commit 2% of GDP for defense spending (NATO). However, in the wake of the changing security environment, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pressure from the Trump Administration, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte proposed a ramp up to 5% GDP spending on defense, with 3.5% dedicated to defense and equipment budgets and 1.5% on infrastructure and cybersecurity (New York Times, Reuters). In recent comments, Rutte said he “assumes” the alliance members will agree to the 5% target during the 2025 summit from 24-25 June (Reuters). 

• Softer commitments such as "aspiring to," "working toward," or "committing to work toward" 5% defense spending will not qualify as agreement.
• The agreement does not need to specify a timeline for reaching the 5% target.
• If there is unanimous agreement among all members to commit to a 5% defense spending target, then the question will resolve “Yes” regardless of whether countries later walk away from the commitment.

Issued on 07/01/25 03:59pm
While NATO members reached an agreement on a 5% GDP defense spending target at the June 2025 summit in The Hague, this question will remain open because Spain has explicitly stated that they will not meet this new target. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez declared that Spain would not have to meet the 5% spending target and would only spend 2.1% of GDP to meet its NATO obligations (France24, Fortune Europe, Breaking Defense). Early reports said that NATO accommodated Spain by changing the agreement language from "we commit" to "allies commit," to allow flexibility (Reuters, CNBC). However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte rejected Spain's claim that they are exempt (The Corner). Since the resolution criteria requires unanimous agreement from all 32 NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, and Spain has not agreed to this target, the question cannot resolve "Yes" at this time.