Confirmed previous forecast
-0.033014
Relative Brier Score
148
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 20 | 164 | 148 | 1248 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 72 | 64 | 417 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 18 | 55 | 44 | 197 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 197 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming down with the passage of time and no significant changes on the ground.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some breakthrough in areas of control.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files