Confirmed previous forecast
-0.03293
Relative Brier Score
131
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 5 | 147 | 131 | 1231 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 69 | 61 | 414 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 5 | 55 | 44 | 197 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 197 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
0%
17
100%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Many have gone through the possible countries and why they are unlikely to recognize Palestine in the timeframe, but I would like to credit @VidurKapur 's succinct forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Three countries would need to recognize, most likely Germany, Italy, and South Korea. I think a breakdown in the ceasefire and some inciting incident would be required.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The RSF has taken Al Fashir and could likely mount a successful attack on El Obeid through there use of encirclement and siege before attacking directly. However, the geography of Khartoum is sufficiently different enough that different tactics will be required.
First, size: I did a quick "measure distance" on Google Maps to grab something like the diameter of each city. Al Fashir is about 11.5km and El Obeid about 11km. Khartoum proper is about 21km, and the metro area is about 40km across.
Second, rivers: Neither Al Fashir nor El Obeid have water within the city to contend with. In Khartoum, the Nile will act as a significant barrier to the West, and I believe limit the RSF's ability to encircle the city.
Neither of these make the capture of Khartoum impossible, but I expect it makes it quite unlikely within the timeframe of this question.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the RSF quickly takes El Obeid, then moves East to capture Kosti. How the RSF approaches an attack on Rabak would be very telling for how they approach crossing the Nile. Seizing Rabak would give allow for an attack on Khartoum from the South.
Non-militarily, if we see a coup or other fracturing within the SAF, this could expedite the RSF's push to Khartoum.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
In general, I don't believe that this will happen due to the short timeline, and the state of the technology. The regulatory framework is While there have been a large number of AI/ML devices approved, the radiology example indicates that these are focused on drawing inference, rather than generation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While the background noted the use in radiology, there have been nearly a thousand devices using other forms of artificial intelligence. One could argue that these are similar enough that the approval of a LLM device is a 1 -> 2, rather than a 0 -> 1 change. And the submission of a device indicates that the manufacturers are becoming ready for approval by the FDA.
And while the timeline is short, I think that if President Trump decides that this is something he wants to achieve, that a device will certainly be approved in short order.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2027
95%
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
We see a large number of cyber attacks against NATO countries that are assumed to be Russian in origin, but I think that it will be unlikely that one both causes physical damage and can be attributed to Russian groups.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The factor that we are able to see trends in, the number of attacks, is already quite high. The two other factors, in my reasoning, won't have a trend to follow as easily, and so may occur seemingly out of nowhere.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Similar to the "if a ceasefire occurs in 2025" question, I don't believe we'll see any movement on this until at least 2026.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ongoing backchannel discussions leading to a ceasefire in the next two months.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think the crowd has a good sense of this.
Factors for Yes:
Factors for No:
Why might you be wrong?
19+ fatalities can be had in a single incident.