Confirmed previous forecast
0.523618
Relative Brier Score
1269
Forecasts
197
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 17 | 151 | 17 | 1269 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 61 | 7 | 426 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 17 | 42 | 17 | 199 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 197 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing,
semiconductors
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
From https://sudan.liveuamap.com/en, the RSF has not captured El Obeid, but is launching drone attacks against the city. With this still held by the SAF, along with the road east to Kosti, I think it is unlikely that the RSF could capture Khartoum in the time period.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Capture of El Obeid, or a shift in strategy that targets Khartoum.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files