Confirmed previous forecast
5.541375
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Part of overall withdrawal from Cold War obligations worldwide. Rebasing in CONUS after (possible) partial martial law declared is sections of U.S.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China aggression against Taiwan may lead to an increase of Pacific based troops. Same if DPRK engages in aggressive actions n the peninsula.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Some NATO members do not want to risk alienating the U.S. Administration - which is decidedly not friendly to NATO interests or an advocate of deterring Russian aggression.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A successful kinetic attack in the coming weeks, or a cyber attack with obvious kinetic effects and Russian fingerprints may mobilize the more recalcitrant members of NATO.
Files
@RabbitRabbit , you may be correct! Use your best judgment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given recent increase in hostilities and Modi’s treatment of his Muslim population - I expect a casualty event on or around Pakistan Independence Day, August 14th.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Larger actions from China may distract India’s attention from its Pakistani border regions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Cuomo has the name recognition, and Adams has alienated too many neighborhoods to be competitive. In today’s environment, Democratic primary pressures are to close ranks quickly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Dark horse candidates may surprise, or Adams may have enough donors to swamp the others.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is insufficient state capacity to replace the withdrawal of federal resources.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The federal policies to return disaster relief to the states may shift based on public sentiment.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is a global chill on plans to visit the U.S. Canadian vacations to Florida, for example, are far below historic data. The U.S. is closing itself off from much of the civilized world, and the world notices.
Why might you be wrong?
There may be increased visits from countries friendly to the Administration- Turkey, Hungary, Russia, etc.
How do you come to 100% No conclusion based solely on the Condé Nast website, or are you assessing other sites also or using intuition mainly?
How does the Condé Nast website compare with this one? https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/
FYI: I would probably assess between five - 20 websites to interpret the trend and possible direction of the forecasting question. Five websites is a fairly small number, but this is based on the quality of the websites. (i.e., there may be some very accurate websites located that are respected for good reporting).