Trump has been dead set on this for a decade
3.467182
Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jun 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's a matter of when, not if. Only debate is the time frame
Files
Nice way to put an obvious fact ;-) Anyway: 75% would require something more specific about to happen than that IMO.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Everyone is keeping their head down while the Middle East brews up.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe someone decides to exploit attention on the chaos elsewhere
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
You can only be an incompetent moron for so long before something REALLY bad happens as a result
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Americans are stupid, ignorant, animals
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The bill is really unpopular and Trump is distracted
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe they decide to do it quickly in the dead of night when no one is paying attention.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Who knows with the potential for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe it isn't. Things seem to be settling down a bit for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 2.3%
6%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
9%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
35%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
46%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Between tariffs and the middle east, this won't be good
Files
Why might you be wrong?
TACO, so maybe tariffs won't be as bad as thought
Files
Why do you think you're right?
No one wants to come to the US right now in the middle of an authoritarian coup while ICE brutalizes travellers
Why might you be wrong?
I dunno. Maybe they're kidnapping people and forcing them to come to the US