Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2025 03:45PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 09, 2025 03:45PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 75% | 3% | +72% | +0% |
| Latvia | 75% | 2% | +73% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 75% | 3% | +72% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 09, 2025 03:50PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 19% | +61% | -63% |
| No | 20% | 81% | -61% | +63% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2025 03:53PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 09, 2025 03:53PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -2% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -6% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | -8% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +15% |