How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Started
Jun 09, 2025 08:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
The National Weather Service ranks hurricanes into categories from 1 to 5 based on wind speed using the Saffir-Simpson scale. Any storm reaching at least a Category 3 is considered to be a major hurricane (NOAA). Of the 18 named storms in 2024, there were 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Wikipedia, Weather Underground). Comparatively, in 2023, there were 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Wikipedia, Weather Underground).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved based on the National Weather Service’s determination of a hurricane’s strength when it makes landfall in the continental United States. Hurricanes that are Category 4 in the Atlantic Basin, but Category 2 when making landfall will not count towards the total. Similarly, hurricanes that make landfall on Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands will not count towards resolution.
Resolution Notes
Zero major hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 1 | 99% | |
| Between 2 and 3, inclusive | 1% | |
| Between 4 and 5, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than or equal to 6 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 127 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 518 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
