After reading others' rationales, I reduced Angola (safest bet) and Nigeria by a tad. I had Kenya at higher odds than Ethiopia, but decided to put more weight on Ethiopia since that's where most folks are centering as the epicenter here. These two countries are my most pronounced risks, and I'm remaining elevated given the human factor aspect of this question and the lack of transparency about this process and how it is reached. There isn't a hard-fast rule regarding when to trigger these defaults occur, so I can't be so certain that at least one button would be pushed in the coming 8 months that would at least satisfy one of these countries.
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Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps improving economic conditions could mitigate the risks.
Why do you think you're right?
After reading others' rationales, I reduced Angola (safest bet) and Nigeria by a tad. I had Kenya at higher odds than Ethiopia, but decided to put more weight on Ethiopia since that's where most folks are centering as the epicenter here. These two countries are my most pronounced risks, and I'm remaining elevated given the human factor aspect of this question and the lack of transparency about this process and how it is reached. There isn't a hard-fast rule regarding when to trigger these defaults occur, so I can't be so certain that at least one button would be pushed in the coming 8 months that would at least satisfy one of these countries.
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps improving economic conditions could mitigate the risks.