probahilliby

Time update.

Tweak.

Routine update.

Time update.

On the other hand, I think there is a sliver of potential openings and opportunities that if aligned correctly in time, will yield to even one ceasefire to being taken into effect.

One important thing to remember is although that Russia is rejecting recent terms and conditions, it is also Russia pushing for ceasefire, and specifically a withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk Oblast. This is short of those pesky high-bar conditions like giving up more land.

My view is that the NATO push against Russia is meaningfully strong, which should force Russia to desperately try to possibly gain other territories, but there doesn't seem to be any tangible appetite or plans for that at the moment, as resolving footing in Ukraine has to be priority. This puts Russia in a tight position of bending with negotiations under certain stress.

N/A

We can see these plans come into play if leaders of such agendas are on the extreme end of NATO backing and anti-Russia, those who are most pessimistic on Russia and believe in a strong NATO action plan to thwart the odds against Russia into Ukraine and Europe's favor.

In a hundred worlds, I can see this combination of conditions happening maybe 3 out of 100 times.

Slight updates for passage of time and reducing assuming negotiations will dampen odds a bit.