RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2025 01:28PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	1%	+18%	-1%
No	81%	99%	-18%	+1%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2025 01:08PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	14%	3%	+11%	-3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	79%	96%	-17%	+3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	7%	2%	+5%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2025 01:20PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	3%	+11%	-3%
No	86%	97%	-11%	+3%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 05, 2025 01:25PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	33%	68%	-35%	+5%
30 days	23%	5%	+18%	-4%
31-60 days	8%	5%	+3%	-2%
61-90 days	15%	5%	+10%	+0%
91 days or more	21%	16%	+5%	+1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 10, 2025 08:43PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	2%	+8%	-2%
No	90%	98%	-8%	+2%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2025 06:53PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	46%	+4%	+4%
No	50%	54%	-4%	-4%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	9%	5%	+4%	-4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	11%	12%	-1%	+7%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	27%	76%	-49%	-2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	30%	6%	+24%	-2%
More than or equal to 6,000	23%	1%	+22%	+1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2025 10:55AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	25%	85%	-60%	+59%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	25%	11%	+14%	-17%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	25%	3%	+22%	-24%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	17%	1%	+16%	-11%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	8%	0%	+8%	-6%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	47%	20%	+27%	-7%
No	53%	80%	-27%	+7%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2025 01:58AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	18%	+7%	-6%
No	75%	82%	-7%	+6%

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