Forecasted Questions
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 11, 2026 11:05PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Jan 11, 2026 11:05PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 71% | 85% | -14% | +0% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 51% | 55% | -4% | +0% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 49% | -15% | -1% |
| No | 66% | 51% | +15% | +1% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 33% | 33% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million | 38% | 45% | -7% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million | 20% | 17% | +3% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million | 7% | 4% | +3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $800 million | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 31, 2026 06:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:17PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 31, 2026 06:17PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda | 23% | 37% | -14% | +0% |
| Sergio Fajardo | 17% | 8% | +9% | +1% |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 38% | 43% | -5% | -1% |
| Other | 22% | 12% | +10% | +0% |