RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	34%	49%	-15%	-1%
No	66%	51%	+15%	+1%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	33%	33%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	38%	45%	-7%	-1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	20%	17%	+3%	+1%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	7%	4%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to $800 million	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:16PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 06:17PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Iván Cepeda	23%	37%	-14%	+0%
Sergio Fajardo	17%	8%	+9%	+1%
Abelardo de la Espriella	38%	43%	-5%	-1%
Other	22%	12%	+10%	+0%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 03, 2026 04:10AM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	42%	-7%	-2%
No	65%	58%	+7%	+2%

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