Routine update. Bumping Espriella based on recent trends.
0.155315
Relative Brier Score
223
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 24 | 175 | 27 | 1384 |
| Comments | 4 | 21 | 186 | 24 | 300 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 21 | 64 | 23 | 162 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 134 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-3%)
Iván Cepeda
17%
(-2%)
Sergio Fajardo
38%
(+7%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
22%
(-2%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Seems like a reach for this timeframe.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Then again, a lot of folks, even in government, like to reach borderline absurdity.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-5%)
Yes
66%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(-3%)
U.S. Entity
51%
(+1%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Slight tweak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(+5%)
U.S. Entity
50%
(+5%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Routine update.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Downgrading due to progress. Seems like veto risk is still a big factor in weighing this question closer to the NO side than YES.
Why might you be wrong?
n/a