Time update.
2.838245
Relative Brier Score
1349
Forecasts
133
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 18 | 175 | 170 | 1349 |
| Comments | 2 | 19 | 193 | 188 | 268 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 13 | 61 | 60 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 133 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-19%)
Yes
95%
(+19%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Small tweak down.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Small tweak down.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-6%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update for time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-1%)
Yes
89%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Small routine tweak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Small routine tweak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(+1%)
U.S. Entity
45%
(+1%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Small tweak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Small tweak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
(+11%)
U.S. Entity
44%
(+13%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Recalibrating after considering new information by @PeterStamp.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- US dominance may not be guaranteed
- Upper bounds are highly susceptible to be revised down and up and down again, but looking at the recent trends, there's a good sign.
- More focus on efficiency instead of brute power may stifle growth
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(-6%)
Yes
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
91%
(+6%)
No
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-2%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
85%
(+2%)
No
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Tweak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tweak.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update. Still pretty much consistent with old forecast, but raising a tad bit to incorporate the points the others are making.
Why might you be wrong?
Routine update.