Routine update.
3.043322
Relative Brier Score
1379
Forecasts
134
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 30 | 176 | 178 | 1379 |
| Comments | 5 | 28 | 188 | 196 | 296 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 25 | 67 | 65 | 162 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 134 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(+5%)
U.S. Entity
50%
(+5%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(+2%)
Less than $350 million
33%
(+10%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
13%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
8%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
4%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Fresh forecast after reviewing latest information. Not as confident in lower values as last forecast but maintaining Bin A as the plurality. Downside potential.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Overweighting lower estimates.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Estonia
9%
(-1%)
Latvia
10%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(-2%)
Moldova
7%
(0%)
Armenia
13%
(0%)
Georgia
5%
(+2%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-7%)
Yes
45%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Taming confidence a tad bit as priorities may kick elsewhere. Nominal change overall.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
n/a
Files
Why might you be wrong?
May be underestimating given recent instability and outbreak of protests in Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes
84%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-7%)
Yes
96%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Deferring to crowd wisdom here for the most part. Initial forecast much higher, so slight nod to that.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Increased volatility in the region shifts conditions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
Yes
54%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Would be lower but reading over the YES arguments has me a bit more cautious.
Reminder from background info: "formal rescission of the AI Diffusion Rule had not been completed."
PLUS: China seems to have awoken, and Trump Admin seems more adversarial on foreign adversaries. These make the bar lower.
I think I'll be more comfortable with the crowd aggregate of 16% once there's 3 or less months less remaining—unless the current US govt. administration dials down hard that there won't be new controls.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Status quo and overall Trump attitude toward AI promotion continues.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Slight tweak.
Why might you be wrong?
n/a