ctsats
made their 36th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
21% (-3%)
Yes
79% (+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

As of writing, NVIDIA stock still struggles below 3.0T, and its price change is again in negative territory.

I see many people below expressing concerns that the training cost reported by DeepSeek may turn out to be bogus, and that NVIDIA stock price may rebound in such a case.

But DeepSeek was not the only recent breakthrough regarding efficiency and economy. Just about a week before DeepSeek R1 was released, NovaSky, which is currently not a company but a collaborative initiative led by students and advisors at UC Berkeley’s Sky Computing Lab, released Sky-T1, a reasoning LLM on par with OpenAI's o1-preview (currently at #7 of the Chatbot Arena LB), with a total training cost of $450 (not a typo, $450, without being accompanied with "thousand" or anything else):

https://novasky-ai.github.io/posts/sky-t1/

https://github.com/NovaSky-AI/SkyThought

https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/11/researchers-open-source-sky-t1-a-reasoning-ai-model-that-can-be-trained-for-less-than-450/

I can only guess that the main reason why Sky-T1 did not generate headlines (and financial panic) is that they did not release a web interface and/or app with a working model (hence the model did not enter any leaderboards); but I don't think that this will be the case for much longer.

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Why might you be wrong?

Volatility

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