From an actuarial perspective, Khamenei’s reign is almost certainly in its final years [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/will-irans-next-supreme-leader-be-last-khamenei-akbar-ganji?check_logged_in=1]. He will be 86-years old in April. An 85-year old American male has a 10.5% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables, plus 2 for consistent reports of real health issues including a previous bout with cancer..
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Why might you be wrong?
Iran's Assembly of Experts and Khameini himself might decide a transition is needed sooner to provide political stability during a time of regional turbulence.
Why do you think you're right?
From an actuarial perspective, Khamenei’s reign is almost certainly in its final years [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/will-irans-next-supreme-leader-be-last-khamenei-akbar-ganji?check_logged_in=1]. He will be 86-years old in April. An 85-year old American male has a 10.5% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables, plus 2 for consistent reports of real health issues including a previous bout with cancer..
Why might you be wrong?
Iran's Assembly of Experts and Khameini himself might decide a transition is needed sooner to provide political stability during a time of regional turbulence.