-0.043893
Relative Brier Score
169
Forecasts
105
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 188 | 169 | 692 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 336 | 327 | 573 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 37 | 31 | 117 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 108 | 105 | 196 |
| Definitions | |||||
Why do you think you're right?
An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%.
Why might you be wrong?
"Peace in our time" before Thanksgiving?
Why do you think you're right?
H/T to @ctsats: "Any future deployment of western troops to Ukraine – as envisaged by the Franco-British-led “coalition of the willing” – would also be banned."
Why might you be wrong?
Very dark gray swan.
Why do you think you're right?
One-in-fifty chance that Zalansky will agree to cede territory and never join NATO, etc., all in order to maintain access to US intel and military supplies?
Why might you be wrong?
Trump might be serious this time?
Why do you think you're right?
8,167 million cubic meters in Q3 2025. What would drive a near doubling in the last quarter?
Why might you be wrong?
Why do you think you're right?
An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%.
Why might you be wrong?