41st
Accuracy Rank

TBall

About:
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-0.043893

Relative Brier Score

169

Forecasts

105

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 6 188 169 692
Comments 0 3 336 327 573
Questions Forecasted 0 6 37 31 117
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 1 108 105 196
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%. 

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Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
TBall
made their 16th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Estonia
3% (0%)
Latvia
4% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
TBall
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

"Peace in our time" before Thanksgiving? 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

H/T to @ctsats: "Any future deployment of western troops to Ukraine – as envisaged by the Franco-British-led “coalition of the willing” – would also be banned." 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Very dark gray swan. 

Files
New Badge
TBall
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
TBall
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
2% (-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
98% (+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

One-in-fifty chance that Zalansky will agree to cede territory and never join NATO, etc., all in order to maintain access to US intel and military supplies? 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Trump might be serious this time? 

Files
New Prediction
TBall
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Estonia
3% (0%)
Latvia
4% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
TBall
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

8,167 million cubic meters in Q3 2025. What would drive a near doubling in the last quarter? 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
Files
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