Confirmed previous forecast
-0.054124
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 159 | 0 | 697 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 309 | 0 | 573 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 117 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 99 | 0 | 196 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-2%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+2%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
An especially cold December is NOT expected...that was one of the risk factors I thought could raise EU consumption of Russian hydrocarbons. No peace deal yet, and Russian supply has remained steadily below threshold rates all year. 1% --> 0%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
"Peace in our time" before Thanksgiving?
Files