Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2025 06:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 22, 2025 06:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 05:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:23PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 05:23PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |