1. Ukraine military position is not yet totally collapsing. No unconditional capitulation in 2025 at least.
2. Ukraine and Russia continue to be as far apart as they have ever been.
3. Trump team's approach to mediating the settlement is the same as its approach to tariffs: demented belief in the strong-arm tactics.
4. Given the present military reality, a temporary ceasefire only benefits one side, Ukraine.
5. The resolution threshold is low: agree to something, let it last at least one day. There are certainly many scenarios where either side agrees to the ceasefire while having an intent to violate almost immediately.
Overall, I don't expect it with high probability in 2025.
Why do you think you're right?
1. Ukraine military position is not yet totally collapsing. No unconditional capitulation in 2025 at least.
2. Ukraine and Russia continue to be as far apart as they have ever been.
3. Trump team's approach to mediating the settlement is the same as its approach to tariffs: demented belief in the strong-arm tactics.
4. Given the present military reality, a temporary ceasefire only benefits one side, Ukraine.
5. The resolution threshold is low: agree to something, let it last at least one day. There are certainly many scenarios where either side agrees to the ceasefire while having an intent to violate almost immediately.
Overall, I don't expect it with high probability in 2025.
Why might you be wrong?
If either Putin or Zelensky make 180 degree turn.