Despite the ongoing call between Trump and Putin, decided to make an initial forecast before getting info from it :)
There is clearly momentum for negotiations currently, and each side is contributing to discussions. However there are clear disagreements on the realities of the situation, and lack of willingness for compromises. Ceasefires and peace deals are mostly seen as tools for winning, especially by Russia and US, there's little genuine drive for peace.
I've heard potential on both sides to simply take advantage of a cease fire, for Ukraine to rearm, rest and fortify, and for Russia to build roads and rail line for logistics, and possibly prepare a mechanized assault across Dnipro to Kherson.
I'll also add as a consideration the months of !bezdorizhzhia", aka the muddy seasons when offensives are more difficult, this could be potential time to have a ceasefire, since both sides would struggle to actually gain anything during that time.
The difficulty on finding any agreement to a ceasefire is that most rationally look at the situation after the ceasefire, not at the ceasefire itself. And the actors involved are numerous - US, UK, EU, Ukraine, Russia, Nato to name a few, from these there is increasing tension between US vs. EU and Ukraine, meaning negotiation results reached by US are likely not in line with what EU or Ukraine would want, which is difficult as Russia seems to have no interests in negotiating with them. As such demands by Russia to e.g. end all arms support for Ukraine would not go through, nor that no Nato country would be allowed to have peacekeeping presence in the region.
Probabilities: - Timeframe for Jan-Mar is very small, and I'll give it 1%, ready to take it out soon. - If negotiations go well, late Apr-Jun might see ceasefire if it's "effective immediately". - I've adjusted Jul-Sep down just for considering that its seen as prime offensive time compared to others. - Oct-Dec I've considered the duration of negotiations that they will continue for longer, and that again the weather gets more awful. - While I would hope a beneficial ceasefire would be reached in 2025, the 2026 bucket leads currently for me, and it is difficult to see both sides finding a satisfactory agreement.
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Why might you be wrong?
Jan-Mar might suddenly occur and a small ceasefire declared. But very slim chance considering Russia seeks benefits and also that Ukraine is not as involved in the process as they should if they are to agree to the results.
Difficulty of the ceasefire is the effect the current setup has, with only US and Russia negotiating, like US and Soviet Union in Jalta over other countries after WWII. I have doubts over how well the modern world accepts this. It is difficult to gauge the dissident voices in EU and Nato, and whether those believing in fair process and sovereignty can or will capitulate under US pressure, and then by extension Ukraine.
One thing to remember, after all this rant about US and Russia, is that in the end the bilateral agreement requires Ukraine as well.
Why do you think you're right?
Despite the ongoing call between Trump and Putin, decided to make an initial forecast before getting info from it :)
There is clearly momentum for negotiations currently, and each side is contributing to discussions. However there are clear disagreements on the realities of the situation, and lack of willingness for compromises. Ceasefires and peace deals are mostly seen as tools for winning, especially by Russia and US, there's little genuine drive for peace.
I've heard potential on both sides to simply take advantage of a cease fire, for Ukraine to rearm, rest and fortify, and for Russia to build roads and rail line for logistics, and possibly prepare a mechanized assault across Dnipro to Kherson.
I'll also add as a consideration the months of !bezdorizhzhia", aka the muddy seasons when offensives are more difficult, this could be potential time to have a ceasefire, since both sides would struggle to actually gain anything during that time.
The difficulty on finding any agreement to a ceasefire is that most rationally look at the situation after the ceasefire, not at the ceasefire itself. And the actors involved are numerous - US, UK, EU, Ukraine, Russia, Nato to name a few, from these there is increasing tension between US vs. EU and Ukraine, meaning negotiation results reached by US are likely not in line with what EU or Ukraine would want, which is difficult as Russia seems to have no interests in negotiating with them. As such demands by Russia to e.g. end all arms support for Ukraine would not go through, nor that no Nato country would be allowed to have peacekeeping presence in the region.
Probabilities:
- Timeframe for Jan-Mar is very small, and I'll give it 1%, ready to take it out soon.
- If negotiations go well, late Apr-Jun might see ceasefire if it's "effective immediately".
- I've adjusted Jul-Sep down just for considering that its seen as prime offensive time compared to others.
- Oct-Dec I've considered the duration of negotiations that they will continue for longer, and that again the weather gets more awful.
- While I would hope a beneficial ceasefire would be reached in 2025, the 2026 bucket leads currently for me, and it is difficult to see both sides finding a satisfactory agreement.
Why might you be wrong?
Jan-Mar might suddenly occur and a small ceasefire declared. But very slim chance considering Russia seeks benefits and also that Ukraine is not as involved in the process as they should if they are to agree to the results.
Difficulty of the ceasefire is the effect the current setup has, with only US and Russia negotiating, like US and Soviet Union in Jalta over other countries after WWII. I have doubts over how well the modern world accepts this. It is difficult to gauge the dissident voices in EU and Nato, and whether those believing in fair process and sovereignty can or will capitulate under US pressure, and then by extension Ukraine.
One thing to remember, after all this rant about US and Russia, is that in the end the bilateral agreement requires Ukraine as well.