Confirmed previous forecast
-0.006305
Relative Brier Score
253
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 267 | 253 | 1949 |
| Comments | 0 | 6 | 123 | 120 | 238 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 15 | 38 | 32 | 158 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 37 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027
93%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
96%
(+2%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering as I expect, regardless of outcome, that the peace negotiations with USA incentivizes Russia to present itself as "peaceful" against its other neighbours. Moldova is the biggest question mark, but it's likely that Russia keeps using hybrid methods instead of direct invasion for long-term destabilization play.
Why might you be wrong?
.