RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:28PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	17%	-2%	-1%
No	85%	83%	+2%	+1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	0%	+2%	-2%
No	98%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	100%	-2%	+2%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:36AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:36AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:37AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	96%	96%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:37AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027	Feb 25, 2026	6%	+1%	+0%
No	93%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027	Feb 25, 2026	94%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:37AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:38AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
No	94%	93%	+1%	+0%

Paul_Rowan

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