At this point it seems highly unlikely for the following reasons:
1) NATO membership of the baltic states, which means an invasion would trigger article five and bring in other NATO members.
2) Preparations by the baltic states, e.g. increased defense and leaving the land mine treaty, signaling that an invasion would be costly.
3) Russia's war in Ukraine is ongoing and has drained Russia's military and economic resources.
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Why might you be wrong?
Russia's war in Ukraine might end favorably sooner than expected, freeing up resources and allowing Putin to prepare for the next invasion.
The United States continue to waver in its commitment to NATO and honoring article five, or goes as far as withdrawing. This has become more likely as the US is considering giving up the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). The lack of US support for NATO would weaken its deterrent effect and might embolden Putin to invade.
Why do you think you're right?
At this point it seems highly unlikely for the following reasons:
1) NATO membership of the baltic states, which means an invasion would trigger article five and bring in other NATO members.
2) Preparations by the baltic states, e.g. increased defense and leaving the land mine treaty, signaling that an invasion would be costly.
3) Russia's war in Ukraine is ongoing and has drained Russia's military and economic resources.
Why might you be wrong?
Russia's war in Ukraine might end favorably sooner than expected, freeing up resources and allowing Putin to prepare for the next invasion.
The United States continue to waver in its commitment to NATO and honoring article five, or goes as far as withdrawing. This has become more likely as the US is considering giving up the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). The lack of US support for NATO would weaken its deterrent effect and might embolden Putin to invade.
Two years is a long time, a lot can happen.