Confirmed previous forecast
-0.547406
Relative Brier Score
496
Forecasts
55
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 32 | 50 | 496 | 496 | 496 |
| Comments | 8 | 21 | 374 | 374 | 374 |
| Questions Forecasted | 30 | 30 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
62%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
76%
(0%)
Yes
24%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on time left and crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Extreme cold in December that could require importing more gas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
6%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files