Should resolve yes based on this - "At least 20 people have been killed across both countries, with nearly 200 more wounded, since fighting resumed on Monday." - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/12/cambodia-thailand-fighting-enters-5th-day-thai-pm-confirms-trump-call
-0.543026
Relative Brier Score
503
Forecasts
57
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 43 | 503 | 503 | 503 |
| Comments | 7 | 19 | 381 | 381 | 381 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 30 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 2 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+2%)
Yes
0%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+6%)
Yes
2%
(-6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
“This will almost certainly go on longer than the five-day war of last July,” said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst with Janes, a publication specializing in defense and security. Now the Thai military, he said, is “much more frustrated with the Cambodian side, and is keen to deliver a lesson to the Cambodian military that it won’t forget for the coming years.” - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/world/asia/trump-call-cambodia-thailand.html
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump call?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-19%)
Less than $21.0 billion
90%
(+28%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
7%
(-9%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why might you be wrong?
Misunderstanding the resolution criteria.
President doesn't sign it and wants changes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
shock announcement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+22%)
Yes
8%
(-22%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing "yes" probability because of ongoing fighting, according to this article we're already at 14 killed and that count could rise today
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump could pick up the phone and force a temporary ceasefire
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+65%)
Yes
30%
(-65%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
updating based on recent developments https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/09/asia/thailand-cambodia-border-conflict-explainer-intl-hnk
Files
Why might you be wrong?
might de-escalate as Cambodia doesn't seem to be retaliating at full force at the moment
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
62%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
76%
(0%)
Yes
24%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Based on @PeterStamp comments and analysis of updated Kiel numbers (resolution source)
Why might you be wrong?