RUN_RWC

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 19 528 19 528
Comments 3 16 404 16 404
Questions Forecasted 2 13 69 13 69
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 61 1 61
 Definitions
New Badge
RUN_RWC
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2026

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Moving up based on Norway news (h/t @Quail ) and the potential Estonia deal I mentioned 

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Why might you be wrong?

Possible that neither reaches the stage needed to qualify for yes resolution by the deadline. 

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New Comment

Estonia close to making a decision on a $1.2 billion missile defense system, three options on the table: Patriot (US), SAMP/T NG system (EU); and David’s Sling (Israel). So two out of three would count towards a yes resolution.

"Asked about the expected timeline for the system’s selection, Rosin said that a decision will be made by the end of March 2026 at the latest. At the same time, “it is very difficult to estimate when a contract might be signed. However, the goal is to conclude the deal as quickly as possible,” the spokesperson added"  - article

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

update

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Why might you be wrong?

same as before

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
RUN_RWC
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
19
0% (0%)
18
0% (-1%)
17
100% (+1%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?

Time remaining

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Why might you be wrong?

Late surprise

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Moving with the crowd

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Why might you be wrong?

Same as before

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Reports of lingering deflation, see also this report

Plus I'm reevaluating projections by World Bank and others that project growth of less than 5% 

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Why might you be wrong?

Political pressure to meet set targets. It only needs to be Q2, not for the entire year. 

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