March 31 is in 10 days and a ceasefire agreement in that time period seems highly unlikely.
We could potentially see a ceasefire in the next three months before the summer in response to US efforts. During the summer, I think the likelihood of an agreement drops as Russia will try to achieve military victory.
As we approach the winter, the likelihood of a ceasefire increases though I think the likeliest outcome is that we don't see a ceasefire this year.
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Why might you be wrong?
I might be underestimating US pressure on Russia.
I might be underestimating the current costs Russia is suffering in terms of casualties and materials.
Why do you think you're right?
March 31 is in 10 days and a ceasefire agreement in that time period seems highly unlikely.
We could potentially see a ceasefire in the next three months before the summer in response to US efforts. During the summer, I think the likelihood of an agreement drops as Russia will try to achieve military victory.
As we approach the winter, the likelihood of a ceasefire increases though I think the likeliest outcome is that we don't see a ceasefire this year.
Why might you be wrong?
I might be underestimating US pressure on Russia.
I might be underestimating the current costs Russia is suffering in terms of casualties and materials.