michalbod
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
20%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
60%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Looks like there might be a bit more pressure from Trump towards Putin in recent days so I have bin "until June 30" a bit higher for now, hoever even if pressure will keep for next few weeks I expect tactic of delayed negotiations and demands way beyond Ukraines red lines from russian side.

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Why might you be wrong?

If Putin would be really pressured he may agree for temporary ceasefire to regroup and blame Ukaine for violating ceasefire agreement.

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