As of 1/28 it is second lowest behind 2018 but is increasing in recent days and will probably be higher than 2025 which was higher as of 1/28 but than stalled.
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Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 11 | 171 | 11 | 1162 |
| Comments | 3 | 3 | 62 | 3 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 95 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 109 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Storms near Arctic may halt forming ice cover which may lead to lowest extent.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump does not seem to be interested in removing her, other regime figures may wait how situationj will unfold.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If she falls under Trump radar and she will not cooperateher days might be numbered
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
5%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
14%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
initial forecast
Why might you be wrong?
initial forecast