Forecasted Questions
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 97% | -2% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 93% | +5% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts
31 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 3% | 8% | -5% | +3% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 5% | 11% | -6% | +0% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 70% | 73% | -3% | -2% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 14% | 6% | +8% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 8% | 1% | +7% | +0% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 02:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 03:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 03:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 88% | +2% | -5% |
| No | 10% | 12% | -2% | +5% |
Will the average Arctic sea ice extent for March 2026 be the lowest on record for that month according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2026 03:08PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Jan 30, 2026 03:08PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 34% | +16% | -29% |
| No | 50% | 66% | -16% | +29% |