Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:25AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:25AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:26AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:26AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 97% | -2% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 93% | +5% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 79% | 68% | +11% | +0% |
| 30 days | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 10% | 16% | -6% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:27AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | 0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +0% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 3% | 5% | -2% | -4% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 5% | 12% | -7% | +0% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 70% | 76% | -6% | +2% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 14% | 6% | +8% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 8% | 1% | +7% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:28AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 1% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 97% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 99% | -2% | +1% |