Confirmed previous forecast
0.034326
Relative Brier Score
299
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 11 | 193 | 168 | 1139 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 71 | 58 | 82 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 11 | 23 | 18 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 109 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
5%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
14%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
79%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
3%
(0%)
31-60 days
3%
(0%)
61-90 days
10%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files