Recent developments indicate a low likelihood of a ceasefire taking effect in this timeframe. While Russia has expressed conditional support for a 30-day ceasefire, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need for it to lead to "long-term peace" and address the "root causes" of the conflict. He also raised concerns about Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and the potential for Ukraine to rearm during the ceasefire. Additionally, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described efforts to end the war as a "drawn-out process," highlighting the complexity of achieving a resolution. These factors suggest that a ceasefire is unlikely to be implemented in the immediate future.
July – September 2025:
As the year progresses, the probability of a ceasefire may increase modestly. Trump has expressed frustration over stalled negotiations and threatened additional sanctions if progress isn't made. He would clearly see a deal as a major boost for this presidency. European leaders are also urging Russia to agree to a ceasefire and take goodwill measures, such as returning deported Ukrainian children and releasing prisoners of war.
October – December 2025:
In the latter part of 2025, the cumulative effect of diplomatic initiatives and potential shifts in the conflict dynamics could lead to a higher probability of a ceasefire. However, this remains contingent upon several factors, including the willingness of both parties to compromise, the effectiveness of international mediation, and developments on the ground. Given the current trajectory, a ceasefire by the end of 2025 is plausible but not guaranteed.
2026: High Probability
If a ceasefire or peace agreement has not been reached by the end of 2025, the likelihood increases in 2026. Prolonged conflicts often lead to fatigue and increased pressure for resolution. International stakeholders may also escalate their involvement to prevent further destabilization.
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April – June 2025:
Recent developments indicate a low likelihood of a ceasefire taking effect in this timeframe. While Russia has expressed conditional support for a 30-day ceasefire, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need for it to lead to "long-term peace" and address the "root causes" of the conflict. He also raised concerns about Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and the potential for Ukraine to rearm during the ceasefire. Additionally, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described efforts to end the war as a "drawn-out process," highlighting the complexity of achieving a resolution. These factors suggest that a ceasefire is unlikely to be implemented in the immediate future.
July – September 2025:
As the year progresses, the probability of a ceasefire may increase modestly. Trump has expressed frustration over stalled negotiations and threatened additional sanctions if progress isn't made. He would clearly see a deal as a major boost for this presidency. European leaders are also urging Russia to agree to a ceasefire and take goodwill measures, such as returning deported Ukrainian children and releasing prisoners of war.
October – December 2025:
In the latter part of 2025, the cumulative effect of diplomatic initiatives and potential shifts in the conflict dynamics could lead to a higher probability of a ceasefire. However, this remains contingent upon several factors, including the willingness of both parties to compromise, the effectiveness of international mediation, and developments on the ground. Given the current trajectory, a ceasefire by the end of 2025 is plausible but not guaranteed.
2026: High Probability
If a ceasefire or peace agreement has not been reached by the end of 2025, the likelihood increases in 2026. Prolonged conflicts often lead to fatigue and increased pressure for resolution. International stakeholders may also escalate their involvement to prevent further destabilization.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-top-diplomat-urges-russia-agree-ukraine-ceasefire-with-us-pressure-2025-03-31/?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/31/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-war-ceasefire-news-live-latest
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