TrishBytes

As of November 2025, there are active talks and an updated framework was drafted. Kyiv is publicly engaged but insists on sovereignty and guarantees. Moscow has stated that the US proposal is a *basis* for talks. Trump has publicly claimed progress and envoy activity.

Ukraine's official position remains that any deal must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, dignity, and provide security guarantees. Multiple public addresses in late November 2025 state that (a) a framework from Geneva is “on the table,” (b) Ukraine is working with the U.S. and partners to “define steps that can end Russia’s war,” and (c) Ukraine “will never be an obstacle to peace” while insisting on dignity, sovereignty and security guarantees.

Source: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/speeches

Italy and Japan are the two that are *most* likely to formally recognize Palestine, but even these two are low likelihood and don't have the momentum to do so by February 2026.

Italy:

- Italy saw nationwide protests in October. "Over 200,000 people protested across Italy Friday as they downed tools in support of the Gaza aid flotilla in a strike that caused widespread disruption." (Source)

- An open letter signed by former ambassadors called on the government to formally recognize Palestine. (Source)

- The official stance of the Italian PM is that they will recognize Palestine if they release all hostages (still in progress) and Hamas is ousted completely (not looking likely right now. (Source) 

Japan:

Japan's official position is that it is a consistent supporter for a two-state solution, and it has voted in favor of UN resolutions granting Palestine greater status. However, it is deferring formal recognition based on a "comprehensive assessment," voicing concerns that immediate recognition would "only serve to harden Israel's stance" and stressing the need for Palestinians "to build a robust governance system."

(Source)

Whatever the outcome of the current Peace Plan, I don't see the glaring issues with it resolving before the end of this year.

The 28-point peace proposal, reportedly embraced by President Donald Trump, is described by critics and European allies as being heavily tilted toward Moscow's demands and rewarding Russian aggression, severely diminishing its prospect of being accepted by Ukraine without a total loss of sovereignty.

The plan was reportedly drafted by a small group led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance, often in direct communication with Russian officials and excluding key White House staff and U.S. cabinet officials until the last minute.

The prospect for a successful peace plan now rests on Kyiv and its European partners' ability to "rework" and "amend" the U.S. framework to remove the most damaging concessions, making it a viable document that respects international law and Ukraine's sovereignty.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-24/ukraine-peace-plan-is-product-of-white-house-without-a-compass

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/zelenskyy-with-u-s-peace-plan-ukraine-risks-losing-dignity-or-losing-key-partner

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/21/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-00665416?

Confirming previous forecast.

Still improbable for now.

Sudan: The formal bilateral agreement for full normalization has been delayed due to ongoing internal political instability in Sudan. 

Saudi Arabia: Normalization with Israel has been a major diplomatic goal for the US, and discussions were reportedly nearing completion prior to the October 2023 conflict in Gaza. Following the conflict, Saudi Arabia has reiterated that an agreement is conditional on a viable path toward an independent Palestinian state. The recent MBS-Trump meeting reportedly saw some tension on the issue of Israel as well. According to this Politico report, one source said, "The best way to say it is disappointment and irritation. The president really wants them to join the Abraham Accord. He tried very hard to talk him. It was an honest discussion. But MBS is a strong man. He stood his ground."

Syria: Syria, as other forecasters have noted, has halted normalization talks. The Syrian Foreign Minister noted at an event that normalization is difficult now, "especially as Syria is under Israeli threat". Most recently, "Israeli forces in southern Syria raided a village and opened fire when they were confronted by residents on Friday, killing at least 10, Syrian officials said" (source).

Planning to stay at zero for the remainder of the forecast period, unless there is a major change (firing of key personnel driving White House policy for example).

The most significant policy development in the last week is the Genesis Mission. On November 24, 2025, a new Executive Order, "Launching the Genesis Mission," was signed, establishing a national effort to use AI to accelerate scientific discovery, likening it to the Manhattan Project. The language in the EO suggests compliance with existing export controls, rather than the implementation of new ones.

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/launching-the-genesis-mission/

I have been tracking the GAIN AI Act. It was introduced in the House (H.R. 5885, October 31, 2025) and a bipartisan version was introduced in the Senate on November 7, 2025. While not an expansion of national security controls, this act represents a new, expanded form of export constraint focused on domestic supply prioritization. If passed, it would effectively be a new export control measure. That said, I don't see it on the voting schedule for the Senate.

Source: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/banks-warren-cotton-schumer-mccormick-coons-introduce-landmark-bipartisan-gain-ai-act-to-maintain-us-position-as-worlds-leader-in-critical-artificial-intelligence-chips

Elsewhere, the Department of Commerce is (still) actively seeking proposals for the deployment of full-stack AI export packages.

Source: https://www.trade.gov/press-release/commerce-extends-rfi-phase-american-ai-exports-program-response-industry-requests

Ending with where I started, key personnel in the White House. AI czar David Sacks is the most staunch opponent of AI export controls (See this Politico article, paywalled).

Re-upping rationale for new forecast period.

China isn't ready for an invasion/long-term blockade yet, but is building towards it.

This scenario from a Time article is compelling, with a limited quarantine scenario setting the stage for a blockade, followed by an invasion if Taiwan does not accede.

"A quarantine could begin by Beijing announcing “enhanced customs inspection rules” that require all cargo and tanker vessels to file advance paperwork with Chinese authorities. Noncompliant ships would be subject to on-site inspections, questioning, and possible detention.

The quarantine could target all Taiwan’s ports or even concentrate on just one, such as Taiwan’s biggest trade hub of Kaohsiung in the island’s south, which today handles around half of all goods. In this scenario, 600-odd Chinese coast guard vessels would take the lead, alongside the 3,000 or so armed fishing boats that form China’s maritime militia, although backed up by naval strike groups lurking close by. Chinese-flagged shipping vessels would universally comply and be allowed into Taiwanese ports, presenting a quandary to foreign ships whether to follow suit. If China’s authority is respected, it will have established a “new normal” regarding its dominion. "

https://time.com/7327558/taiwan-china-independence-military-war-invasion/

China is also building up its gold reserves and crude oil reserves, but it is difficult to chalk this up to war-readiness factors only, given current trade tensions between the US and China.

"State oil companies including Sinopec and CNOOC will add at least 169 million barrels of storage across 11 sites during 2025 and 2026"

and:

"Gold Reserves in China increased to 2298.53 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2025"

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-accelerates-oil-reserve-site-build-amid-stockpiling-drive-2025-10-07/

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves

Finally, Xi is clearing house with his anti-corruption measures. A number of "Chinese defense and contracting bigwigs got the boot", including nine top generals. Beijing is unlikely to undertake a complex military campaign until there is full confidence in the military and defense procurement pipelines.

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/29/taiwan-china-trump-alexander-yui

Assessment remains: DPRK is "ready" but not actively preparing for a nuclear test.

38North's November 2025 report on Yongbyon notes:

1. New Enrichment Facility: Commercial satellite imagery from October and November 2025 indicated that construction and outfitting of a new suspected uranium enrichment facility is nearing completion. Based on the imagery, authors suggest that the facility is being prepared for operation.

2. Reactor Operation and Testing: The 5 Megawatt-Electric (MWe) Reactor continued to operate consistently. The Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) was observed undergoing pre-operational testing.

3. Waste Storage Expansion: Construction of a semi-buried radioactive waste storage facility continued near the Old Waste Site, which aligns with North Korea's directive to expand its nuclear material production capacity.

From the November 2025 IAEA Board of Governors meeting:

The European Union's statement noted that the "continued preparedness of the Punggye-Ri testing facilities to support a nuclear test remains deeply troubling." Other statements are similarly positioned, included this one delivered by Canada.

+

Reports based on intelligence shared with US allies in early November 2025 stated that North Korea has the ability to carry out a seventh nuclear test at the Punggye-ri No. 3 tunnel on short notice, should leader Kim Jong-un issue the order.