DimaKlenchin
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
9% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
12% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
77% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Putin's spokesman in the interview to a French outlet:

▪️ "We intend to achieve our goals. Whether by peaceful or by military means, we will get there. The goals remain the same, they are clearly defined";
▪️ The war will end immediately if Ukraine withdraws troops from the four regions "enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation".
▪️ Zelensky's resignation is "not part of the Kremlin's demands", but any documents signed by him could be disputed because of his "illegitimacy";
▪️ Putin respects Trump. They agree that refusing dialogue is absurd. The hypothetical meeting between Trump and Putin "should be productive" and "preparatory work is underway".

Translation: Putin just said that absolutely nothing has changed. Affirming a very low probability in the next two months.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username