Last year was 285. The Texas 2025 outbreak is practically over. Going by 2024 rate, ~170 additional ones will be added in 2025, for a total of 1220. Comfortably in the lowest bin even to the end of the year.
Significantly larger rate would be required to get to the second bin. Possible but not terribly likely. The remaining three bins would require, IMO, another dramatic outbreak within the next three months - something for which the base rate is zero in the past 15-30 years. That's down to a noise and so I'll assign equal probabilities.
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Why might you be wrong?
If any of my explicit and implicit assumptions and calculations used to make the forecast prove significantly incorrect, I will likely be wrong. In the same vein, if there are biases that I have not accounted for and/or did not correct or corrected for improperly, I will likely be wrong too.
Why do you think you're right?
Last year was 285. The Texas 2025 outbreak is practically over. Going by 2024 rate, ~170 additional ones will be added in 2025, for a total of 1220. Comfortably in the lowest bin even to the end of the year.
Significantly larger rate would be required to get to the second bin. Possible but not terribly likely. The remaining three bins would require, IMO, another dramatic outbreak within the next three months - something for which the base rate is zero in the past 15-30 years. That's down to a noise and so I'll assign equal probabilities.
Why might you be wrong?
If any of my explicit and implicit assumptions and calculations used to make the forecast prove significantly incorrect, I will likely be wrong. In the same vein, if there are biases that I have not accounted for and/or did not correct or corrected for improperly, I will likely be wrong too.