When you transform an economy to a war economy, it takes time to unwind. The last thing Putin wants is for 500000 Russian soldiers to return at once. What true stories they will tell...
I calculate that with interest rates up to 20 percent, not even the Russian Central bank can keep inflation down without causing a serious recession.
But without Western intervention by means of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian hydrocarbons,his war economy will limp into the next year. In the meantime Kiev might collapse or he could gain significant territory.
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Why might you be wrong?
I have yet to see West provide Ukraine with the economic and military weapons it needs to win. That could change. Whether you regard General Mattis or Colin Powell as geniuses or Kissinger, you can't win without a specific goal overwhelming force to achieve it and an exit strategy. NATO and US have no clear goal and have given Ukraine barely enough to survive.
Putin has a very clear goal and preponderance on the field of battle. Until that changes or Russia faces significant economic upheaval, he will persist.
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-putin-ukraine-war-economy-7e410058?st=LPVWLe
When you transform an economy to a war economy, it takes time to unwind. The last thing Putin wants is for 500000 Russian soldiers to return at once. What true stories they will tell...
I calculate that with interest rates up to 20 percent, not even the Russian Central bank can keep inflation down without causing a serious recession.
But without Western intervention by means of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian hydrocarbons,his war economy will limp into the next year. In the meantime Kiev might collapse or he could gain significant territory.
Why might you be wrong?
I have yet to see West provide Ukraine with the economic and military weapons it needs to win. That could change. Whether you regard General Mattis or Colin Powell as geniuses or Kissinger, you can't win without a specific goal overwhelming force to achieve it and an exit strategy. NATO and US have no clear goal and have given Ukraine barely enough to survive.
Putin has a very clear goal and preponderance on the field of battle. Until that changes or Russia faces significant economic upheaval, he will persist.