This is an update to my first forecast, incorporating new information--to wit, that President Trump reportedly has approved an attack plan against Iran but is holding off on a final order, pending Iran's response to demands that it abandon its nuclear program.
The source of this information, the Wall Street Journal, has a track record of delivering verified scoops on the conflict and internal White House deliberations. The very publication of this information could induce Iran or its proxies to preemptively attack US interests.
I'm therefore increasing my forecast to 75% likelihood of a US strike--one either initiated by the US or in retaliation to an attack on US interests by Iran or its proxies. I assess the odds of Iran's abandoning its nuclear program to be low, but hardly impossible. The cumulative odds that it might do so--or that any of the other scenarios which might forestall a US attack, cited in my first forecast, might materialize--would in my view be 25%.
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Why might you be wrong?
The WSJ information could be wrong.
It's possibly a mistake to hang so much of a forecast on a single piece of information, however credible.
Other previously-noted caveats still apply. I don't know Trump's mind. Nor Khamenei's.
The imminence of a US attack could be the trick that induces Tehran to relent, thereby forestalling a US attack.
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?