The base rate for US attacks on Iran is quite low. We've attacked Iran directly only once in the past twenty years. In a given 2-month period, that equates to a 1% chance for an attack.
However, the United States has attacked other countries pretty regularly. Even excluding Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has committed air strikes against a country in about 70% of the months in the past twenty years.
So, base rate is somewhere between 1% and 70%, perhaps.
Specifically, right now, Israel is striking Iran but cannot hit certain targets that only the US can strike. This is an impetus for the US to potentially strike Iran.
But the US (and specifically Trump) is delaying making a decision on this for at least 2 weeks, which may be a sign that the US will not make a strike. It could also mean we are looking to have some strategic ambiguity on when or if we will strike.
All told, it points towards a low but real chance of a strike. The 1% base rate is keeping my estimate lower than otherwise.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump could be bluffing about bluffing. It is a difficult thing to anticipate a decision like this.
Why do you think you're right?
The base rate for US attacks on Iran is quite low. We've attacked Iran directly only once in the past twenty years. In a given 2-month period, that equates to a 1% chance for an attack.
However, the United States has attacked other countries pretty regularly. Even excluding Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has committed air strikes against a country in about 70% of the months in the past twenty years.
So, base rate is somewhere between 1% and 70%, perhaps.
Specifically, right now, Israel is striking Iran but cannot hit certain targets that only the US can strike. This is an impetus for the US to potentially strike Iran.
But the US (and specifically Trump) is delaying making a decision on this for at least 2 weeks, which may be a sign that the US will not make a strike. It could also mean we are looking to have some strategic ambiguity on when or if we will strike.
All told, it points towards a low but real chance of a strike. The 1% base rate is keeping my estimate lower than otherwise.
Why might you be wrong?
Trump could be bluffing about bluffing. It is a difficult thing to anticipate a decision like this.