3 months from now does not look like sufficient time.
Putin announced that Ukraine plan is totally inconsistent from Russia.
Real negotiations have yet to occur and will be lengthy.
Russia cannot afford to end war without converting economy, bringing hundreds of thousands of veterans home, giving up million man army. Even if he wanted to end the war, I am not sure elements of the security state would consent. Putin is more likely to be ousted in a coup if there is a cease fire.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump turns on Putin and imposes secondary sanctions which is difficult unless PRC is excluded because of ongoing US and PRC trade talks, At best Trump will send Ukraine for money Patriots and provide close intel support. At best this keeps Ukraine in fight until new year and Putin still has the incentive to continue war for years. It was reported today DPRK is sending 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. That bodes for a long continued war.
Why do you think you're right?
3 months from now does not look like sufficient time.
Putin announced that Ukraine plan is totally inconsistent from Russia.
Real negotiations have yet to occur and will be lengthy.
Russia cannot afford to end war without converting economy, bringing hundreds of thousands of veterans home, giving up million man army. Even if he wanted to end the war, I am not sure elements of the security state would consent. Putin is more likely to be ousted in a coup if there is a cease fire.
Why might you be wrong?
Trump turns on Putin and imposes secondary sanctions which is difficult unless PRC is excluded because of ongoing US and PRC trade talks, At best Trump will send Ukraine for money Patriots and provide close intel support. At best this keeps Ukraine in fight until new year and Putin still has the incentive to continue war for years. It was reported today DPRK is sending 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. That bodes for a long continued war.