Plataea479
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
1% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
2% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
97% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Moscow seeks total dominance in Ukraine and kneecap its economy terrorize population with millions of drones. . 20 million displaced Ukrainians externally and internally. Its part of Putin pattern. Syria produced 20 million after total war by Putin and Assad especially in 2012 see Aleppo and Mariupol after 2 24 22.

Its total war like WWI or WWII except its fought by Ukrainians v. Russia.

Best the US support Ukraine with patriots at the cost of 43 million per missile or Arrow at 1 to 2 million.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/return-total-war-karlin?check_logged_in=1

this is total war by Russia in every dimension. It may come from PRC over Taiwan unless we move full speed ahead with construction  naval and  aerial drones at scale. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu-warns-europe-must-start-building-millions-of-drones-to-defend-itself-against-possible-russian-attacks/ar-AA1HqUSl?ocid=BingNewsSerp

EU and US and Taiwan need to build and use the drones the Ukrainians use. Millions. We need to replicate. They are outnumbered 4 to 1 and without their use of FPV drones and Naval Drones, they never would  have broken the Russian blockade by sinking 20 of the Black Sea fleet much less kept the fighting in the Donbass. PRC RU Iran dominate military production of drones and components

See https://www.statista.com/topics/7939/drones/#topicOverview

drone  think NATO will have to put up a wall or drones from North Cape to the Southern border of Poland. See http://www.skynews,com  and https://www.statista.com/topics/7939/drones/#topicOverview

 Iran and Russia produce millions of drones and the US UK and NATO must produce drones cheaply without using PRC components and cannot afford 23-50 million  for  1000 Predator drones . Ukraine may have answers/ 

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Why might you be wrong?

Trump actually imposes secondary sanctions and aids Ukraine a lot Not just just up to 50 billion, someone has to produce at scale/ 

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