I was reluctant to forecast this question prior to the clarification because of the range of interpretations of the resolution criteria and lack of clarity. The current state seems pretty clear - a NATO communique was issued (which must be unanimous) by all the NATO Heads of State and Government stating "Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually." The wording change from "all Allies" to "Allies" doesn't mean that the statement doesn't apply to all Allies. The 2006 statements on 2% also used the term Allies, but applied to the entire alliance (NATO link). Spain, at the highest levels of government, believes it has an exemption, although the exemption is not written into the unanimous communique. I think it's likely (>80%) that this state on the ground will persist through July. It's not impossible (~5%) that Trump's attempts to pressure Spain will succeed, but not likely.
I am ready to forecast this question now that the RFI team has issued a clarification, although I don't think I agree with it. If the current state is a "no", I think it's likely to persist. If the RFI team wants to make additional clarifications or changes its position, I would suggest annulling this question.
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Why might you be wrong?
Pressure on Spain to withdraw claims of exemption. Or a new clarification or interpretation by RFI.
Hi @khaz , I wholly agree with your assessment on the question. Waiting to forecast on it until after the clarification was provided is a good idea. I think the question should be voided as well.
I perceive that it’s not necessary for Trump to pressure Spain, as the inference that “all 32 members agree” while perhaps not the complete truth, satisfies the leaders in charge. However, I believe it should also satisfy the question!
Why do you think you're right?
I was reluctant to forecast this question prior to the clarification because of the range of interpretations of the resolution criteria and lack of clarity. The current state seems pretty clear - a NATO communique was issued (which must be unanimous) by all the NATO Heads of State and Government stating "Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually." The wording change from "all Allies" to "Allies" doesn't mean that the statement doesn't apply to all Allies. The 2006 statements on 2% also used the term Allies, but applied to the entire alliance (NATO link). Spain, at the highest levels of government, believes it has an exemption, although the exemption is not written into the unanimous communique. I think it's likely (>80%) that this state on the ground will persist through July. It's not impossible (~5%) that Trump's attempts to pressure Spain will succeed, but not likely.
I am ready to forecast this question now that the RFI team has issued a clarification, although I don't think I agree with it. If the current state is a "no", I think it's likely to persist. If the RFI team wants to make additional clarifications or changes its position, I would suggest annulling this question.
Why might you be wrong?
Pressure on Spain to withdraw claims of exemption. Or a new clarification or interpretation by RFI.
Hi @khaz , I wholly agree with your assessment on the question. Waiting to forecast on it until after the clarification was provided is a good idea. I think the question should be voided as well.
I perceive that it’s not necessary for Trump to pressure Spain, as the inference that “all 32 members agree” while perhaps not the complete truth, satisfies the leaders in charge. However, I believe it should also satisfy the question!